Coming from the north?

 For reasons that escape me now I recently downloaded all the eBird data for Bega Valley Shire.  This is our immediate neighbour to the North but as it is in NSW eBird treats as though it is Siberia.  Having let that hobby-horse go for a canter round the paddock I will move on to the main thrust of this post which is to comment on whether a comparison of the species listed in the Bega set suggest some species which might turn up in East Gippsland sometime soon.

The simple comparison is easily done using the "find unmatched" query wizard in ACCESS, matching on Common Name.  This gave 123 mismatches.  Unfortunately: 

1. the Bega dataset was downloaded before the latest eBird taxonomy shuffle and the East Gippsland one after; and 
2. I hadn't corrected the spelling of Grey in the Bega set.

This meant that about 50 of the apparent mismatches were due to taxonomic/language issues rather the species not being in East Gippsland.  (This was exacerbated by some of the species being listed multiple times as subspecies - eg there are 3 listing for Gray Fantail and 3 for White-capped Albatross.)

A further 16 taxa were spuhs (eg "hawk sp.") and thus not really able to be considered further.  I can't imagine anybody twitching "Hawk sp." while "Pacific Baza" briefly got a lot of people checking their fuel tanks!

Of the 57 remaining mismatches 20 were birds mainly likely to be seen on a pelagic outing so I leave them to the specialists!

I have formed the remaining 37 taxa into two groups.  22 are species with very few records and thus will probably only appear in the Mallacoota District serendipitously.  The remaining 13 species may well - at first glance - have a critical mass in Bega to leak across the border.  These 13 are discussed in what follows in more or less taxonomic order.  Comments regarding the usual range (unless otherwise explained) are based on eyeballing a species map in eBird and the "number of records" is the number of eBird records in Bega Valley Shire.

Magpie Goose (6 records)

The usual range appears to be North of a line from the Illawarra to Cape Patterson.  Recent records near Canberra are just about on that line.  The species has records in Western East Gippsland at Lake Omeo.  The Canberra and Lake Omeo records are the closest to what are now regular sightings of two birds at Pambula.  Thus far in their history they have shown no inclination to make the 60km - as the Magpie Goose travels - trip to the Mallacoota District.

But I do look closely at the Genoa Flats every time we drive past.  A large and distinctive species, unlikely to be missed or misidentified.

Plumed Whistling Duck (3 records)

The Bega Valley records are from 2011 at Panboola Wetlands.  At that time there appeared to be an eruption from the species usual range including to near Canberra where a few birds are still seen regularly.  a few old records from near the Gippsland Lakes and Marlo.  I think the most likely source for this species is from the Canberra outpost.  The usual location near Canberra is a holding paddock at Bungendore where the main food for the ducks is grain which has passed through cattle.  

A large and distinctive species, unlikely to be missed or misidentified.

Red-necked Avocet 4 records

Bega Valley records at Lake Curalo, Eden in 2018.  The closest records to the North are Kiola Beach - about 200km in a straight line.  There have been several records, some of >100 birds in the Marlo area, so it could be hypothesised that any Mallacoota birds will come from the West.  I have seen the species in a wide range of habitats and would welcome comments from experts as to why there is a gap in the distribution from Marlo to near Kioloa.

A very distinctive species, unlikely to be missed or misidentified.

Lesser and Greater Sand-Plover 5 4 records

I am unfamiliar with either of these species (and it is messy with Lesser recently being splut (sic) into 2 species).  That gets a bit embarrassing with one of the records, of Siberian Sand-Plover, from Green Cape , being from me!  I think what must have happened was that I saw a Red-capped Plover but things got messy with no web coverage there and somehow the wrong species got selected.  I am very sure I didn't see this species there and then.

Both Greater and Siberian recorded along East and South Coasts, but sparsely in Bega Valley and  "on the corner".  I can't see why it isn't recorded in Mallacoota, other than it preferring unbirded areas such as Goodwin Sands.

There may well be confusion with non-breeding Double-banded Plovers so check closely.

Southern Giant Petrel 42 records

A pelagic species but with a good number of Bega Valley records.  This species is almost unrecorded between Eden and Phillip Island while there are a number of sightings of Northern Giant-Petrel in the area.  Referring to the Compact ABG this seems to reflect existing wisdom.  The crucial field mark appears to be red on the bill: a rather nuanced distinction for inexperienced shore-based sea watchers.

Not really coming from the North, but suggests careful checking - as far as possible - may pay off.

Glossy Ibis 9 records

The map in compact ABG suggests a definite absence from the SE corner which is not so clear from the eBird map, due to a few isolated sightings (mainly historical) at Pambula, the Snowy Flats and Gippsland Lakes.  The species seems to favour the major rivers of the Murray-Darling system and coastal areas North of (about) Nowra.  There has been a recent sighting at McLeod's Morass so the species can wander!

A large and distinctive species, not likely to be missed or misidentified.  Perhaps could be mistaken, with a poor sighting, as Straw-necked Ibis?

Barking Owl 11 records

Nearly all the records in Bega Valley come from reports (of a single bird?) by several members of a COG visit to Bittangabee Bay during a Green Cape camp so possibly there are only 2 records in Bega Valley.   Many of the more serious birders visiting Mallacoota include an owling event in their itinerary but no one has reported the species: given the distinctive (if out of Jack Russell territory) call this suggests the species is not here.  As the species is very sparsely reported East of the Hume Highway and South of Canberra (maps in both eBird and Birdata, and from description in HANZAB) I am not hopeful that it's range includes this area.