January 2025 Weather report

 The numbers suggest a temperate moist month.

Rain

Mallacoota recorded 89.2 mm of rain during the month, 176% of the median and 137% of mean fall.  his came in 4 events spread through the middle of the month.  On a trip to Merimbula we noticed that the grazing country had greened up quite well. 

It is too early to really make any sense of the pro-rata estimate of rain for the year but the pattern is fairly typical of the situation in January.

Temperatures

A significantly cold start to the month was followed by a hot period (not quite a heat wave) and then a gradual cooling with a very mild end to the month.  This is illustrated well by the development of the anomaly - which ended at -0.23C.

The value of the anomaly continues to suggest a downwards movement, especially the moving average, which excludes seasonal variation.

Both components of the average (minimum and maximum) show great variation relative to the long term daily average at my WS, but with reasonably consistently low values for the last 1/3rd of the month.

Minimum temperatures.

The average daily minimum was 16.2C in the lower part of recent values.  The lowest value recorded, 10.4C on 3/1, was very significantly below average although there have been 45 lower January minima (including BoM records) since 1994, and 4 other days were significantly below.  3 days were significantly above the long term January average minimum.

Maximum temperatures 

The average daily maximum was 25.38C, in the higher part of recent values.  The highest value recorded, 36.8C on 5/1, was very significantly above  average with only 25 January maxima (including BoM records) since 1994.  There are 11 January maxima - including those adjusted to exclude the cooling effect of the sea breeze at the airport site - above 40C.  In 2025 6 other days were significantly above the long term average maximum.  Only 1 day - 30/1 - was significantly below the long term January average minimum.

No period reached 3 consecutive days with significantly high maxima and minima (forming a heat wave) but from 4- 6 January only 1 of the 6 reading was not significantly high so I rate this as a "hot spell"

Humidity

The daily humidity chart is reasonably normal apart from some complexity at the end of the 4 - 6 January hot spell.

The mean morning % is a little above the 6 year average while that for the afternoon reading is a little below the average.

Wind

The average daily wind run (122 km) was below the average for the previous 5 years (128km) although a few days were somewhat draughty.

The run of 305 km on 4/1 was the 6th (of 155) January runs I have recorded while the 270km on 12/1 was the 10th longest
 

October 2024 Weather Report

 The summary is fairly straightforward: moderate temperatures and continuing dry.

Rain

What is this thing called rain?  The total miserable fall for October was 19.2mm, the third lowest for the period for which I have records (starting in 1977).  For the last three months the % of median fall has been 36, 89 and now 31.  I will not bother with daily rainfall, other than to note the highest fall (over half the monthly total!) was 10mm on the 5th,  To illustrate  the bleedin' obvious, the month was  well below last year and the median.

My prorata estimate of the annual fall has been in more less constant decline since 30 July with the outcome now below 1000mm for the first time since 5 June.

Temperatures

 The temperature anomaly ended the month at -0.08C, so a little cool.  the development of the anomaly though the month shows a cool start which rapidly warmed up and then wobbled about close to zero for the rest of the month.

A time series of anomaly values shows very variable raw data readings but the 12 month moving averages (removing seasonal variation) and the trend line thereof show a drop from peak values.  I'd still keep the sunscreen handy.

A plot of daily extreme values and the average of them since 2019 shows a lot of variation.  There was no period of consistently above or below averages.

There were no periods of consecutive days with maximum and minimum both significantly above or below the average mean temperature for the month.  The average daily temperature range of 9.5C was fairly close to the average range of  10.2C.

Minimum temperature

The lowest temperature was 4.6C on the 9th.  The average minimum of 10.36 was a little above the long term series including BoM data for years before 2019 but below the average of the 6 years at Angophora Drive and very similar to October 2023.

There were 8 days more than 1 SD below the mean minimum for October of which 2 were more than 2 SD below the mean. Only 3 minima were significantly above the mean minimum.

Maximum Temperatures

The highest maximum recorded in the month was 26.2 on the 22nd.  The average maximum (20.33C) was a little above the average for Angophora Drive (but exactly on the longer term average).

There was only 1 day more than 1 SD below the mean maximum for October. 3 maxima were significantly above the mean maximum.

Humidity

For the first 16 days of the month the rH readings for the 2 standard times were very close, with the afternoon reading lower than expected.  For the second half of the month the pattern was closer to expectations.

Overall the average rH for 0900 hrs ended up below the average for the previous 5 years while that for 1500 hours was below, but within 1 percentage point of, the average. 

Wind

October is traditionally a windy month. However the average run for this month was the shortest by several kilometres of the 6 Octobers for which I have records.  This is due to a number of quite calm days (run <50km) and there not being any days with long runs (>300km).  The longest daily run was only 251km.  

Tempest data

A friend with a weather station near the wharf has given me access to his information published through the Tempest system.  The data I extract therefrom are lightning strikes (within 40km) and solar radiation.

Lightning strikes

Only 12 strikes recorded in October.

Solar radiation

The system records maximum radiation during the day and average radiation.  I average them to get an index for illustrative purposes. 

Clearly there is a seasonal pattern evident so I have calculated a 12 term moving average to smooth that effect.  The smoothing is very effective, showing an almost constant value. (Unlike the feed-in tariff of course which drops constantly.)

An interesting paddle

There have been a lot of waders on the sandbars in front of Captain Stevenson's Point in recent days.  As the weather seemed reasonable (not cold, and light wind although forecast to increase in an hour or so) I decided to fire up the kayak and go visit the area to see what I could photograph.

The first interesting element arose as I prepared to launch the kayak at the wharf.  After getting the kayak off the trailer, getting all the bits and pieces out of the Pajero and wheeling them to my launch spot, I realised that:

1.  the the two components of the paddles were different; and
2. I had picked up two with the female fitting.

So wheel everything back to the car, reload everything and drive home to pick up the needed male half of the paddle.  I was not happy.  However I got back and launched.  Here is my route: yellow arrows are in kayak, red are walking.

I will get to the birds in a while but will write a little about progress.  There is much more water than shown in the image and I was finding a good channel all the way to the Point but after turning across towards the island I could see that I was running out of liquid so the pedals were removed and paddling happened - perhaps for 100m: I was glad I had the correct paddles!  I dragged the kayak well out of the water (being uncertain if the tide was rising or falling).

When I got to point X on the walk I could feel the breeze getting stronger so decided that it was time to pull the plug.  Of course I was a little delayed by the Beach Stone-Curlew but launched OK (the tide was going out or the rising westerly was pushing water out).  Once I got going I found that the wind was pushing me around somewhat and the water was shallower than on the way out.  Pedals out and paddle:

• discovering how useful the rudder was in counteracting the wind's desire to send me to Gabo, and
•  praising various deities that I had the correct paddles rather than trying to remember how to do a J-stroke with half the set!  

Once back to the deep channel by the campground I was also sheltered from the wind and pedalled back happily.  

Here are some bird photos.

Pelicans and about 400 Crested Terns.

Bar-tailed Godwit; Red Knot; Red-necked Stint and Red-capped Plover

Red-necked Stints

This image gives an idea of the density of the birds as the whole shoreline was covered like this.  On thinking about it. possibly 300m long, 10m wide, at least 1 wader per 5 square metres.

As I was approaching the kayak I spotted a Red-capped Plover doing a distraction display and then in the background, this!  A/the Beach Stone-Curlew is back.  I shall try to do a review of the history of the species in Mallacoota but they are not common.

September 2024 Weather report

 Overall a rather temperate month: somewhat like Baby Bear's porridge in avoiding extremes!

Rainfall

After a dry August (36% of median fall) the rainfall improved to 89% of median (64.2 mm) in September, which is well above last year.

 As a result we are now 330 mm above last year's fall to date and my prorata estimate of the annual fall for 2024 is now 1055 mm.  The development of the prorata estimate since March shows that it has been fairly flat over September (as one would expect with a close to median fall).

Temperatures

The overall value of the anomaly ended the month at -0.07C which I regard as effectively zero.  The development of the anomaly shows a hot start to the month with a steady cooling later.  (We lit the fire on a few evenings late in the month.)  The last third of the month was a value constantly just below 0C.

A time series of values of the anomaly shows it as beginning to head downwards although the trend of the moving average is still upwards.

A chart of the daily extremes shows the warm start to the month followed by some low temperatures and the end of the month quite close to average.  (Note that the averages are now limited to the period since 2019 and only show the values from my weather station.)  There were 3 warm days (both extremes significantly above the monthly average) but not consecutive so no heatwave and 2 cold days (both extremes significantly below the monthly average)

The fluctuations in the average series did cause me to explore the pattern of variability between months and to my surprise September temperatures overall were not as variable as those for July and August.

Minimum Temperatures

The average minimum temperature was 9.03C, with a range from 4.1C to 14.6C.  The lowest value was the 3rd lowest recorded in September at home while the highest was the 6th highest.    In total there were 4 days significantly of low minima and 4 with significantly high minima: not all of these coincided with high maxima.

The set of monthly minima since 2019 show this year to be in the middle of the bunch.

Maximum Temperatures

The average maximum temperature was 18.7C, with a range from 11.8C to 30.6C.  The lowest value, on the 14th, was the lowest maximum recorded in September at home (and the second lowest this year - 12.2C was the second lowest at home).  The value of 11.8 was still the lowest if the values from the BoM back to 1995 were included.  The highest was the 2nd highest at home, but only the 6th highest if the Airport values are included (the highest 2 values were both over 34C.

By coincidence, in total there were 4 days significantly of low maxima and 4 with significantly high maxima: not all of these coincided with high maxima.

The average maximum was above average but below 2023.

Looking at the time series for home 2024 is (again) in the middle of the range.

Humidity

The daily humidities at standard times present a strange picture.  

• The first unusual feature is the very low readings early in the month: these would have been low reading at the relatively inland site we used to live in near Canberra.
• Secondly the closeness of the morning and afternoon values; and
• Finally the high level of variation, especially in the morning series.

The morning series is a little below average but above 2023.

The afternoon series is a little above mean and a lot above 2023.

Wind

The daily wind run shows three periods in brisk winds.

The longest run, 228km on the 2nd was the 12th longest September run (of 180 I have recorded) so of interest but not exceptional.  The longest run in September at home was 519km on the 20th in 2019 (and the second longest, of 363 km, occurred on the next day).

Overall the breezes showed the expected pick up after a calm couple of months over Winter.  The average run was a little below 2023 and the 6 year September average.  

July 2024 Weather Report

 A noticeably wet month.  The country all around is very waterlogged.  The temperatures were weird with cool to cold days but warm over night, with the balance being to warm (some species of birds and plants are behaving in ways that suggest overall warmth).

Rain

Overall my  Weather Station (WS) recorded 122.4mm for the month (verified by my plastic Nylex!).  This is 171% of the median fall for July and was the 9th highest fall recorded in July (out of 45 years for which I have records either at the Airport or my WS). As a basic comparison the month was a lot less than June 2024 but dramatically more than July 2023.

There were a lot of damp days!

Much of the weather was squally with isolated rain cells hitting more or less at random.  There were a few heavy falls as shown by rain rate.  The highest rate (96mm/hr) on the 16th was the 27th highest rate I have recorded (out of 1998 daily records).

The random nature of the falls is shown by the variation in monthly totals for some local Stations: as Gabo hasn't reported for a few days late in the month - and the seas have not been conducive for a BoM tech getting out there to fix it - data is not available there.  The last 3 stations are Wunderground sites.

Temperatures

After a cool start the temperature anomaly rose quickly and for most of the month oscillated around +0.5C, ending at +0.4C.

The extremes show the maximum mainly below the average for the date (with the exception of a very warm patch 22nd-23rd and the minimum above average until late in the month when it cooled somewhat.

An outcome of this pattern was a reduced daily temperature range.  The average daily range for July is 9.3C whereas for this year it was only 7.4C.  The range was wider than unusual (such a weird typo I have left it) usual only on 5 days of 31!

Minimum temperatures

On looking at my long term minimum temperature series I notice that many of the recent readings - from my WS - are above the earlier ones from the BoM Airport site.  This leads me to wonder if there is a difference due to topography and thus attempting to compare the two sets is dodgy.  As I now have 6 years of WS data for months up to July I will just show the 6 monthly annual series for comparison.

As expected the value of average minimum temperature (7.66C) is in the upper part of the range shown by these series.  

In terms of significant readings there were 9 readings I regarded as being significantly above the long term monthly average and only 1 reading (of 3.3C on the 27th) significantly below the long term monthly average.  Going forward, I shall recalculate the ling term averages restricting the average to the period since I opened my WS (2019).

Maximum Temperatures

While I have adjusted the BoM Maxima to allow for site differences, to give better consistency I shall also only use the WS series here.  Again as expected the value for average maximum (15.21C) was in the lower end of the range.

The significant readings are a very interesting mixture.  There are 8 readings significantly below the long term monthly average, with the lowest reading 10.5c being very significantly lower.  However there were also 4 readings later in the month significantly above the long term monthly average with the two highest (21.1C on the 22nd and  20.8C on the 23rd) being very significantly above.

Humidity

As might be expected with so many rainy days humidity was generally high.

The low value of rH on the afternoon of the 27th (43%)stands out sufficiently to look at the hourly values through the day.  It presents a believable pattern

Overall the values of both series across the month show it to be in the higher end of humidity for July, but not unbelievably so.

Wind 

My WS is not well exposed to wind and gave particularly low readings early in the month, about which I am suspicious,  However it seems to have shown satisfactory readings later and the 2 local wunderground stations also show low runs early in the month.  So perhaps it was just a calm period?