A couple more walks

 On 16 June we did a walk along the Betka River and then the clifftops back to the picnic area.  Before getting to that, here is a sunrise shot.  No sun, but a very nice inversion holding the mist in place .

This is the route along the Betka River, courtesy of eBird.

The Kennedia along here (possibly K. rubicunda) is completely out of order.  In places it is 3 metres or more up the dead stumps.  We had wondered if it would die back over Winter but not so.  I suspect the time to use some indigenous fire mitigation strategies is fast approaching, but fear it will be the usual light up a few hundred hectares approach, just as nesting and flowering season starts.

The huge Angophora near the start of the walk seems to be recovering well.

Wombat berries (Eustrephus latifolius) are everywhere.

Goodenia sp has also recovered well from the fire.  I think this is G. elongata.

It appears the recent storms have self-bonsaied a few trees along the way.  In the background note the amount of exposed mud in the River.  

Pelargonium australe.

Due to the change in habitat I start a second eBird list when I cross the road.

The hope was that when we got to the Point Difficult lookout we would see some whales.  Indeed we did see them but by the time I had the camera sorted, the best I could do was a couple of spouts.  (Note from the next day - 17 June.  While at Fisherman's Point looking at sea birds a humongous Humpback breached well out towards Gabo.  Again, camera not ready.)

AS we got back towards the picnic area we checked the informal track to the beach for orchids.  No Helmet orchids but a few Pterostylis nutans.

The Solanum aviculare is getting ready for another outbreak of flowering.  While some of them appear to have died - possibly from fungal infection - many are still alive and adding to the fuel load.

A flowery(ish) walk

 I went for a walk in the forest opposite the Pony Club yesterday.  I wasn't the great parade of flowers of Spring but quite a few species were blooming.  Some snaps follow: they are not all great examples of botanical photography but such is life (vide Kelly, N. (1880) " Famous Last Words", Pentridge).

Here is the route I followed courtesy of eBird:

Dampiera stricta

A general view of the grass-tree plain at the start of the walk.  The Leptospermum has sprouted very well and much other growth has occurred.  There is no sign yet of re-sprouting of flowers on the grass-trees.

Epacris impressa

The only bean (ie member of the Family Fabaceae) which I found.  I have yet to identify the genus/species.

The commonest wattle was - not surprisingly inview of the date and habitat - was Acacia genistifolia.  It was everywhere,

I found a few A. suavolens along the side of the highway.

Pimelea humilis 

I think this hard bracket fungus is Phellinus robustus (although iNaturalist called it another name - %&%E$& taxonomists.

This one is Amanita xanthocephala.  It is growing in a number of areas in the District.

Small fungus: possibly Mycena sp.

I think this is a fungus but no idea what,  I have put it in iNaturalist (but they are pretty slow on fungi),

I did say some photos were poor.  ID to be sorted (hopefully).

Craspedia variablis

The drupes of Persoonia laevis.

Seed pods of Lomatia iliciformis, with particularly holly-like leaves!

Kennedia prostrata is beginning to show in flower everywhere.  There is a plant with similar shaped, but far larger, leaves that is forming a massive biomass on the clifftops etc around Betka.  I suspect that is K. rubicunda.

Brachyscme spathulata.  This was the most robust specimen I saw: imagine how tatty the others were!

An Eastern Yellow Robin.  Trust me, I'm  a doctor birder.

Rain event 7 -12 June

I have a suspicion this post is going to be a mess, much like the event itself.  I thus apologise in advance.

Why is this so?  In part at least it is due to the BoM practice of resetting observations at 0900 hrs.  This means that rain from 0901 on day 'n' to  0000 on day 'n+1' , which to the casual observer all falls on day 'n', is all recorded on and against day n+1.  Thus you may have a soaking afternoon and evening on day n, but BoM will record zip against that day if the period prior to 0900 is dry.  While this was understandable when the recordings were made by human beings looking at instruments, in this age nearly all recordings are made by automatic weather stations which need no sleep.  

A further example of the daftness of the 0900 reset is that at 1109 on 12 June the fall for that day is already set at 5.4 mm, being the total in the period to 0900 on that date.

 Of course making the change to using a midnight reset would involve a lot of work for BoM which the ScuMo Government will not fund!

A second part  to the messiness is that the initial forecast was some large amount off the mark but it is difficult to demonstrate this in a coherent way.  I shall try.

This first chart shows the bracket forecasts offered by the BoM on 7 June for the dates shown and the actual rainfall on that day as reported by BoM.  

The upper bound is the fall that is 25% likely while the lower bound is 50% likely.  This is a pretty honest attempt at indicating the variability in the forecast but it is rarely interpreted that way, but usually presented as absolutes - "on day x there will be between a and b mm of rain".  In fact the statistics are up front that 1 time in 4 there will be more than the upper "bound" and 1 chance in 2 there will be less than the lower "bound".  On all the days shown in these forecasts the actual fall was less - some cases dramatically less - than the 50% forecast.  Normally it could be expected that the more distant forecasts are 'worse' than the close dates but that isn't the case here with 10 June being the worst.

The second chart shows (some of) the forecasts for  10 and 11 June.  

To keep things fairly simple I have only shown the 25% series for 10 June: that is reasonably similar for 7 and 8 June but then plummets on the 9th.  It is still double the actual fall (which just matched the 50% estimate) marked with a star.  Both forecasts are shown for the 11th which showed a similar plummet but commencing on the 8th rather than the 9th.  The actual fall on the 11th (24.4 mm - starred) was almost exactly at the midpoint between the two forecasts made on the previous day.

That looks pretty damning, but a friend (a retired meteorologist) has commented:

"With uncertainties about location persisting right up to issue time, BoM had to be fairly generous with the amount of Gippsland covered by heavy rain. The alternative would be to pick an area for flood rains, then be hung, drawn and quartered when it fell 100km farther along the coast."

It was probably a no-win situation for BoM.

Looking at the event overall the next chart shows:

• two sets of daily observations for my weather station (one for the calendar day, the other with a 0900 reset to enable comparison with the BoM data);
• BoM data for Mallacoota  (ie the airport site); and
• BoM data for Gabo Island.

At a broad level the 4 series all show much the same pattern between days. Looking at detail it is noticeable that the 0900 reset for my WS concentrates the rain more to 11th .  The comparison of Gabo and the Airport possibly reflects a shift in the wind from NW on the 11th to W on the 12th.  

Mallacoota was reasonably lucky in missing the worst of this event which in Gippsland was most evident in Bairnsdale and particularly points West of the East Gippsland Shire headquarters .  The following map shows the location of BoM stations in the area.  The locations underlined in red feature in the subsequent chart.

The pattern of heavier falls to the west on the 11th with Mallacoota and Gabo scoring more on the 12th is quite clear.  The outstanding observation is the massive amount of rain at Mount Baw Baw showing how the runoff from the higher country filled the rivers and creeks which flooded Traralgon (in particular) and Sale.

Scene(s) from the lounge

 It was all happening to the West on the afternoon of 12 June.  The first item scene was a pair of kangaroos getting in some boxing practice.

Perhaps more like Mixed Martial Arts?  That tactic always makes me wince!

The final step seemed more like tag-team wrestling.  One of the pairs seemed to be a catchweight match, although the midget is on flat feet and his (I'm assuming females don't play these rough games) opponent is on his toes.

Sunset had a bit of authority.

Then the moon and Venus appeared (and then disappeared behind the clouds PDQ).

Orchids of Betka

 Following a report by Jenni Watts (many thanks for that) I went to Betka to inspect the Fringed Helmet Orchids (Corybas fimbriatus).  The little beauties were found in good numbers.  They are tiny, and surprisingly well camouflaged, so being careful where one is placing one's hooves is important.

On returning to show them to Frances she found this very attractive group.  I didn't attempt to count the whole colony (nor indeed to identify its extent) but at least 10s of plants,

On my first visit I was surprised to find this greenhood.  The rosette nattowed the iD challenge a good bit ...

..  and I thought the overall shape was most like Pterostylis acuminata.

However on our second visit I also noticed this much 'fuller-bodied' flower with lateral sepals visible and it was IMHO clearly P. nutans.

Mallacoota on a day with 70mm forecast.

 On Monday 7 June the BoM forecast for Mallacoota on Thursday 10 June was 50% chance of 30 mm of rain and 25% chance of 70 mm.  (I am having a little confusion in my mind as to whether that timing relates to what falls during the calendar day or has fallen in the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the cited date.)  In fairness the forecast did drop quite dramatically later in the week but ....

Here are a few snaps of what it looked like on our morning walk.

Clouds? what clouds?

Perhaps these picturesque onesover the Howe Range?

The Fisheries Jetty adds to the charm of this one!

Out towards the sea.

A little later in the day I went to Point Difficult where the view towards Quarry Beach was still bright and sunny.

Looking back towards the Howe Range and Gabo Island it was somewhat murkier.