Tuesday 11 May 2021

Not foggy, WET

 Today dawned ... sort of,  with rain falling.    It had started just before 2300 hrs on 10 May and is still coming down at 1500 hrs on 11 May.

I had initially been very dubious of the forecasts of 40 - 80mm but the total is currently 47mm at home, with 33mm at the Airport and an even 50 mm on Gabo Island.

A retired (OK, I don't think he gets paid for it now) meteorologist commented on the morning of May 10:
"All those models have a deep upper low crossing the far W VIC coast in the next few hours after which it slowly moves into SE NSW by midday tomorrow. At that point it gets caught in a lull in the jetstream and becomes nearly stationary until Thursday after which models diverge, but all have it wandering aimlessly around eastern NSW until late Thursday/early Friday before a strengthening jet steers it off into the Tasman. In the lower atmosphere this brings a trough with embedded lows through Bass Strait today with a low sitting on the NSW SC tomorrow. That directs an airstream that is very moist (>90% RH) and very deep (all the way to above 300hPa) directly onto the E Gippsland coast, combining topographic uplift, instability and deep moisture.
So not surprising theta the view from my window has looked this (or worse) for the day so  far.
The tank has got a good top up!
This isn't too clear an image but it is rare to see so many whitecaps on the Inlet.  Not a good day to go for a paddle in the kayaks!
Not a good day to go for a pelagic outing either (unless in something the size to HMAS Choules)!

I went to Betka looking for exotic terns and there were none.  The mouth of that River was closed the previous day but the waves were breaking over it.  So I expect that with pressure frm both sides it will be open again any time from now.

The radars have been interesting with Mallacoota right on the edge of the 256 km beam from Bairnsdale  ...
and Canberra.
The app on my phone brings them both together but doesn't do a very good job of plugging the gap
By 2000 hrs everything seems to have calmed down with my gauge totaling 60 mm for the day and 61.8 for the event so far (Airport 45.8 mm and Gabo 56.2mm).  Bombala AWS scored 43.4 mm for the day so there will be a good lot coming down the Genoa River in a day or two.  

A further squall came through later in the evening putting the day up to 62.2 at home..


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