Poverty in East Gippsland

 On 17 May the ABC posted an article regarding the release of ATO tax statistics for 2021 -22.  My attention was drawn to the list of the 10 postcodes with the lowest average taxable income, which included at position 7 postcode 3889 in Victoria. This is effectively the locality of Bemm River and it's hinterland (see map below).  The data reported by ABC was :

The ABC commented on the two postcodes with the lowest income:

"The area taking in students studying at The University of Newcastle's main campus at Callaghan, postcode 2308, earned an average taxable income of $20,878.

The next poorest postcode was 2052, taking in the University of NSW area, with an average taxable income of $20,892."

 It could be expected that many of the residents of these areas would have bottom of the pecking order incomes ("Would you like fries with that?" etc).  It is also likely that they would have other sources of income (eg parents picking up the tab).  

The ABC didn't comment on code 3889.  As this is fairly close to where we live I decided to investigate.  My objective aim was to see what Census data could reveal about the area but I began by asking a couple of residents who I felt would have some insights their reactions.  No names, no pack drill (nor law suits).  Here are a few  of their comments:

"It's an area that's been impacted by the loss of the timber industry, the removal of the timber mills and the associated DEECA services means there is very little employment in places like Cann River. Even when the timber industry was at it's peak, this was always a lower class, blue-collar working community that would not have been high up the average income by postcode list."

"Firstly, other than store and pub and a few tradies, I'm guessing not many businesses plus maybe parks or whatever DWELP is now. Any state services (ambo?) might be people with residential addresses in other towns.  Secondly, assume that like mallacoota there are quite a few retired people (and maybe they have a few unemployed). There could be retirees whose residential/electoral address is there but mostly live elsewhere, perhaps giving an appearance that the working v non-working ratio, (and so income per capita) is higher than it actually is. "

My personal experience is Mallacoota (about 100km East of 3889) and one of my informants commented :

"Mallacoota has always been an isolated pocket of "wealth" amongst the working class poverty of Far East Gippsland. Some of Mallacoota's wealth is due to the abalone industry, but mostly it has come from external sea/tree changers."

In what follows I shall compare 3889 and the combination of codes 3891 and 3892, which make up my version of the Mallacoota District.  Here is a map of Postal Areas in Far East Gippsland, taken from the ABS Quickstats product for the 2021 Census (3890 is labelled mainly for completeness). 

Census Income Data

The obvious starting point is the Income distribution available from the Census results.  In the graphic below the denominator is the total number of persons in the two areas: 171 people in 3889 and 1304 people in 3891/2.

It is unfortunate that 15% of people in 3889 did not state an income.  My experience is that people tend not to report information where it reflects badly on people (eg they have a low income).  So my expectation is that if these folk had responded it would have boosted the 2 LH bars.  

A second comment is that 120 people did report an income in this question, compared to the 70 people summarised in the ATO data.  I believe this difference could largely be explained by people whose income is via Centrelink and similar sources not completing Tax Returns.

In summary, I believe the Census data is consistent with the ATO data.  This is a similar finding to other far more wide-ranging data which I encountered in my working life, including 15 years working in various Census-related positions.  (Reflecting on history, prior to 1981 it was considered this topic was too sensitive to include in the Census: however such appears not to be the case!  Looking to the future the ABS has published information about the use of administrative data to supplement the information collected directly: I have not investigated this as yet but it seems a major enhancement.)

Age profiles

Postal code 3889 has an unusual age profile as illustrated below.  Firstly a comparison with the whole of Victoria... 

... and then with Mallacoota (itself heavily biased towards and elderly or sea/tree-changer demographic.

Again this suggests that many in the 3889 community will be reliant on pensions (either Government of self funded) and likely to be relatively low in many cases.

Labour Force

As would be expected from the Age Profile above a high proportion of the population of 3889 are not in the Labour Force.  I have omitted the comparison with Victoria since that ould be obvious,

I attempted to show comparative data relating to industries for 3889 from the 2006 Census and it does show that some industries have vanished or declined.  It is difficult to make large statements about this as the area covered by the Postal Area has changed over the period (although I suspect that the population node is the village of Bemm River in both cases).  The map comes from Quickstats for the 2006 Census for Postal Code 3889.

Here is a 3 way Industry Profile - as expected from the Labour Force section above it is dominated  by the "Not Applicable" category which has grown significantly since 2006.