Updated weather report for February 2024

 We have been in Canberra since 26 February, and will be until 8 March, so I don't have weather station (WS)  data for the last 4 days of the month.  However it looks as though the BoM data will be quite adequate to plug the gap, at least in broad terms. That being said, this report will be a draft until we get back to Mallacoota and can incorporate the final WS material.  We are now back in Mallacoota and I will make updating comments (or 'no change') in red, as necessary.

In the past a climatologist has commented that for weather East Gippsland sometimes marches to its own drum.  That has been the case for the last year.  In mid 2023 our area experienced very dry conditions, typical of El Nino, but the BoM refused to call an El Nino event as that is defined by atmospheric and oceanographic indicators.  They did declare an El Nino in about October last year and we duly recorded abnormally high rainfall in November, December and January.  An emerging La Nina (wet) was suggested in February which has resulted - of course - in a return to a dry month!  Of course there are many other climatic indicators (vide http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ ) so treat 'fashionable' nicknames and acronyms, especially in lay media, with caution.

In summary a warm dry month.

Rainfall

No change needed

We totalled 22.6 mm for the month which is just below 50% of the median February fall.

We only recorded more than 5mm of rain on one day in February.  This has occurred in 6 previous Februarys, with the median number of days >5mm at 3.  So dry, but not off the scale.

Not surprisingly my pro rata estimate of the annual fall has continued the downward outcome evident in late January and is now below 1000mm.

Temperatures

The anomaly this month was +0.79C so above average no change.  There was a very warm spell early in the month followed by a cooler period and then a gradual warming.

Looking at the time series of anomaly values, the 12 month moving average (red line) continues the climb seen since December 2022.

The daily extreme temperatures through the month as usual resemble a cross section of a mountain range.  

The average maximum is a greater amount above the long term mean than is the average minimum.  It seems this is due to a few very high maxima (notably the 36.7C on the 13th) biasing the overall outcome.  This will be discussed in more detail below.  There are very small differences due to finalising the records, making no difference to the overall view.

Minimum temperatures

The average minimum temperature was 16.33C which was 0.58C above the long term mean and well above the value for 2023.  It was also 0.53C above the median minimum for February 2024 suggesting a slight bias by very high values. 

7 days had a minimum >1 SD above the long term mean minimum and only 3 days had a minimum >1 SD below the long term mean minimum.  None of these constituted long runs of extremes.

Maximum temperatures

The average maximum temperature was 26.02C which was 1.13C above the long term mean and a little above the value for 2023.  The median temperature was slightly higher as a result of the adjustments but was still 0.92C below the average minimum for February 2024 suggesting a stronger bias by very high values. 

The next chart shows monthly average maxima for financial years since 2019.  All these data are from my WS to avoid the issues of sea breezes affecting the maxima for earlier years.

Clearly 2023-24 is one of the warmer recent years.

7 days had a value>1 SD above the long term mean maximum but only 2 days had a maximum >1 SD below the long term mean maximum.  None of these constituted long runs of extremes and in 5 days the high maxima coincided with high minima.

Humidity

I suspect there is considerable differences between humidity at the BoM site and my WS, so for the sake of consistency this chart is all BoM data.  A fairly dry first half of the month and a moist second half.

Watch this space for more detail when I return to Mallacoota.

The average morning humidity was 3.1% points higher (79.9 vs 76.8) at my WS while the average afternoon reading was 4.6% points lower (66.4 vs 71.0).  There were some major differences to the daily readings most notably in the afternoon with differences of -23% on the 12th and -19% on the 22nd.  The overall pattern however was not too different.  Note that I have included the afternoon BoM data in this chart.

Wind

I know the wind readings are very different at the BoM site and my WS.  Also BoM doesn't publish - at no cost - wind run data.  So the next chart shows maximum daily gust at the BoM site.  (The BoM had no readings for 13th and 14th - probably due to lack of power - so those dates are estimated based on reports from Gabo Island.

I have now extracted the run data for my WS and show that below together with the BoM Gust data: note that they us (very) different scales.

Overall the pattern is quite similar apart from the days where either measure is an extreme.  The longest run (350km on 28 February) reflects a very windy day with the hourly runs between 12km and 19km for most of the day.  That was the 16th longest run of 1845 observations since my WS records began.

Wildlife of Bastion Point

 We went to explore the area around the breakwater yesterday. There was a large (11) flock of Black-faced Cormorants on the breakwater.

Some evidence suggests they have been there for a while.

This shows the black face and the key ID feature: the long black bill.

On the boat ramp we spotted a few crabs.  They will be submitted to iNaturalist to confirm ID but I think this is a Swift-footed Shore- Crab Leptograptus variegatus.

Not sure about this one.  Looked longer and thinner on the rock but iNaturalist AI suggested it was the same species as before.

Storm of 13-14 February

A fair thunderstorm looked to be heading our way in the evening of 13 February. Although rain hadn't got to Mallacoota by 2130, the power went off. I suspect we had been running on the battery for about 6 hours by then but such info is not shared with Ausnet customers.

I woke at 0300 on the 14th with the power still out and decided to check the Outage Tracker. It wasn't working but there was hysteria in the media on the morning of the 14th implying that of the 500,000 places without power, they were going to be off for days or weeks. As the Telstra phones and internet were also out, no one could do any better than that in the way of information. We noticed many garbage bins had blown over as we did our morning walk.

So we headed for Canberra. As we passed through Cooma (3/4 of the trip) we got a text saying power was back on! (Had we known that was likely (or even possible) we'd have stayed as we don't want to be at our apartment over the coming weekend as the ACT Labour/Greens Government are running a huge, noisy EthnoFest (I'm feeling polite) in the park across the street and the noise will be appalling.) I think we will be going back on Friday 16th even though we need to be back in Canberra on the 20th due to an appointment to repair a couple of blinds - which was booked for 8 February but Watson Blinds changed the date as someone got crook.

The overall situation late on 14 Feb is summarised in this post on the ABC site.  Key info in it is that most of the problems are not due to fallen towers or Loy Yang shutting down but a myriad of local issues combining.  I have since gone to what appears to be the Ausnet Outage Tracker (albeit with an unusual URL) and a lot of outages are not due to be fixed until 17 February and others have no completion date.  So:

1. Mallacoota has been very lucky; and
2. On balance I think we made a rational choice, but wish we'd stayed in 'coota,

A goshawk drops in

 I went to chat with Frances this afternoon and was astonished to see a juvenile Brown Goshawk perched on the railings outside her room.  It seemed quite curious about the humans peering out at her (going on size) but not at all fussed.  Note rounded tail and relatively short middle toe.  

Something on the deck caught her eye!

I was a bit slow pressing the shutter as she took off but this image does show the structure of her legs and tail rather well.

She then perched for a side view  - the only one in which the glaring/heavy brow is noticeable.

Bats of 2024

 On 11 February ay about 20:25 Frances glanced out from our lounge and noticed a large flyout of Grey-headed Flying-foxes heading across the Lake from Mullet Creek.

A few were also heading Westwards, towards town.  

By 2035 the flight had pretty much stopped.  

The next evening we drove down to Mullet arriving about 2020 hours.  The camp was pretty noisy and somewhat smelly.  Only one of two bats could be seen, flying above the camp.  At 20:25:22 the first of the stream headed out.

The stream soon built up.

We were starting to get nibbled by mozzies so at 20:31:42 we headed back to the car with the stream pouring over and across the Lake towards Howe Flat.

In terms of total numbers I'd say at least 5,000 worked from about 10 per second flying past a spot and the flyout lasting about 10 minutes (so 10*60*10) and allowing a slow start.

Another Tour-de-Poo-pits

 I try to do at least one survey of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) each month as it is the only place in the District where some species are regularly seen.  On the principle of "do it now or forget" i went this morning.

The January survey was done on a mild, sunny day with lotsa wind, which kept the birds hunkered down and a lowish diversity recorded.  No wind today, but the thermometer in the Pajero recorded 30C when I finished at 1030hrs.  Again diversity was down!  I did add 12 species to my month list with Australian Shelduck; Hardhead; and Musk Duck being species I had hoped for.  No sign of Australian Shoveler or Pink-eared Duck which are both species hoped for here.

Some pix:

The first is a raptor: I was fairly sure this was a Brown Goshawk, but peering into the sun was unhelpful, so ....

... Prof Photoshop-Express was engaged and I think confirmed that view (primarily based on the shape of the ratty tail, with an assist from the size of the bird).   It was escorted from the premises by several antsy Magpies.

A skein of 16 Pelicans flew over, but didn't land.  They are unusual at this site.

Getting to the Big Pond the flotilla of Musk Duck is now 6 birds, the largest number seen at this site.  For the District, 8 Musk Duck have been reported from Howe Flat in October 2020, but the highest here was previously 4.  For the Shire there are several records of 10+ from The Cut and 50 (August 2017) from Jones Bay Wildlife Reserve.

A hardhead is included for those "comparison shopping".

My total list was 26 species.

A Pelican count

 Following an email exchange I went for a very rough count of the Pelicans in Bottom Lake (and the mouth of the Betka) this morning.   Here is my summary: I did 5 minute counts and moved on, expecting this caught all the visible birds and avoiding duplication: my total was 62 birds.

I began with a telescope scan from Jacaranda Court looking across at the Goodwin Sands.  As can be seen from this image it was pretty hazy and the water level was high.  The 5 Pelicans were easy to spot, but I might have missed some if they were lurking in the bush on the island.

I then went up to jetty at Schnapper Point Drive where a few have been hanging out on a little reef recently.  The reef was submerged bur there were 8 hanging out on the Jetty.  None swimming around near the Narrows.

A few near Fisheries Jetty (including 1 off the marsh to the left of the Jetty.)  This one flew in, rom Coulls Inlet as I was leaving.

No fisherpersons appeared to be cleaning fish so the horde (21) were still sleeping on Seagull Island rather than scrounging at the wharf.  Only 9 there.

5 were on the exposed island upstream from the Betka causeway.

I noted other species as I saw them but was really concentrating on the Pelicans.  For what it worth here is the list: a good crop of waders from Captain Steve's especially with some residual family funsters over on the sand bars!

Bat photos

 

Weather Report January 2024

 A rather strange month with overall temperatures moderate, but warm early and cool latter, and a good serve of rain - but only on a few days.

Rain

My weather station (WS) recorded 119.2 mm of rain in January 2024.  This is 236% of the median fall, which was a little surprising in view of the current El Nino status.  However, it appears that our weather - and that of much of Australia is being more influenced by factors linked to the Antarctic than the Pacific phenomena measured for El Nino.

We had >0.2mm of rain on 8 days in the month.  This is just below the long term median number of rain days (8.5 days) but well below the median for the last 10 years.

At this early stage in the year the multiplier involved in my pro-rata estimate are large so a decent fall leads to a very high - unbelievable - estimate for the year of 1,700mm at the end of January.    However if we get no more rain by mid February the estimate drops below 1,000 mm!

Temperatures

The overall measure of temperature  the anomaly represented by the difference between the average temperature for the month and the long term mean for the month ended as +0.55C.  A chart of the development of the anomaly through the month  shows it indicating a very warm early period followed by a gradual cooling.

The next chart shows a time series of anomalies.  Interpretation of this series is above my pay scale!

The interplay of the extreme temperatures shows the very variable daily maxima and the gradual cooling of the minima.  (A fair representation of the number of blankets I needed overnight!)

Minimum temperatures

The average minimum for the month was somewhat above last year, and well above average.

Eyeballing the time series of average minima shows the series fluctuating a lot.  It is thus not surprising that there is not a significant trend.  

In terms of daily variations from 'normal', the minimum was more than 1 SD above the long-term mean for the month on 7 days (mainly early in the month) and only once (the lowest minimum at 12.6C on 27 January) more than 1 SD below the long term mean.

Maximum Temperatures.

The average daily maximum was well above January 2023  and almost exactly at the long term average for January.

A time series, with adjustment prior to 2019 to allow for differences between the BoM site near the airstrip and my WS shows much variation. There is no significant trend.

I also compiled a chart for years ending in June to avoid January being a lone point, and restricted it to the period for which I have WS data.  It shows that thus far this (financial) year is generally warm.

Humidity

An interesting month in terms of matching with rainfall and where it fits within my previous January data (only WS - BoM is very poor in terms of freely available humidity data).

In general terms the peak humidity reading indicates when in the day the rain fell.  For the 8th/9th the rain fell through the day (so both rH are high); on the 17th it was afternoon rain;  and 25/6th the rain started in the afternoon of the 25th and stopped early morning on 26th.  I shall try to follow up on this in coming months.

The 0900 reading was closer to the last two La Nina years than the earlier years ....

... while the 1500 reading was much closer to the two previous years.

Wind

A few quite drafty days!  

The run of 436km on the 7th was the 8th longest run, of 1816 days, I have recorded at my WS.  the modal run was probably around 100km giving a mean of 131km, which is very close to the long term average.  (For some reason unknown to me 2021 was only 113km while the other 4 years are all in the range 130 -137 km.)