How dry is it?

On the Mallacoota Community Facebook group a few members have been asking questions along the lines of "Why is this year different in terms of fire risk?".  Robin Bryant has answered this by quoting the CFA assessment (emphasis added):

The CFA assessment of 16 December is ... The outlook suggests that above-normal bushfire activity will continue across the coastal and foothill areas of East and West Gippsland, across to the Great Dividing Range, however this now extends west to also includes the Central Goldfields, which takes in parts of the Wimmera and Mallee.

This is due to above average temperatures drying out grasslands and forests over the last three months coupled with three years of significant rainfall deficit in much of East Gippsland and across the Divide. While there has been spring rain in the south, much of inland Victoria received insufficient rainfall and as a result, soil moisture is lower compared to the long-term average.

When grasses and crops are close to fully dry, there is a very high potential for fire behavior to rapidly escalate under elevated fire weather conditions.

I thought it worthwhile illustrating the rainfall deficit.  These data are from the BoM site out near the airport, beginning with the annual totals (I have assumed that we are going to get no more rain in the last three days of December).

Its a pity that there are a few years missing, but such is life.  The decline in the last three years is very evident ending with 2019 being the lowest on record at 595 mm.  (There are only two other years below 700 mm.)

The missing years place difficulties in getting a 3 year series with a lot of observations but it is a good bit smoother than the annual data. This show a high plateau early on, followed by a lower plateau and then the drop-off in the last three years.

Further insights can be gained by looking at the data recorded by BoM for Timbillica, just across the NSW border. This typically has an orographic component to its falls as the air from coast rises as it meets the hills.  This site has very good data with only 1 year missing back to 1910.  (December data for 2019 is not yet available for this site so I have estimated it as 50% more than the December fall for Mallacoota.)  The annual values show a lot of variation and I have cut to the chase with triennial data.

The trend line is essentially flat due to variation over time.  However the three year total ending in 2019 is very low: only the years 1981-82 are lower.  So, again, this period is unusually dry.

I've been quiet recently!

This is mainly because I have shingles and moving around is quite painful.  As is sitting at a computer.  Hopefully I am getting over it so here are a few photos taken in December.

The first one is hopeless as a photo but records that I finally found a Nankeen Night-Heron.  It roosts in a tree beside the bakery and has apparently done so for years!

 The first adult Pacific Gull I have seen here: all the others have been immatures.  Note massive bill and black band on tail.

 This is a juvenile Brown Songlark.  A very unusual species in East Gippsalnd and the first eBird record in the Mallacoota area.  (The little one in the background is a Hosrfield's Bronze-Cuckoo.)

 A flagged Australian Pied Oystercatcher (#85).

 An orchid!!!  Dipodium punctatum.

 A thoroughly confused Xanthorrhea resinosa!

 The bird prowling in the grass is a Swamp Harrier - the first I have seen down here.

 Sunrise through the smoke.

 Cape Conran flies!  I have counted 184 in this image, and reckon I had a similar number.

 A sequence from Lakeside drive.

Weather report November 2019

Overview

I'm afraid there isn't a great deal of detail in this as a few issues have distracted me in early December.  I hope to get  to a series of thematic posts in the next week or so.

Overall a mild month with slightly below median rainfall and strong winds (an evil plot to stop us going out in our kayaks)..

Weather characteristics

Rainfall

We recorded 52.2mm for the month as a whole which at 83.5% of median would not be too bad were it not for:

• only recording 2 months so far this year with above median rainfall; and
• somewhat over half that fall occurring on a single day early in the month (and the only other day with >5mm being the next day).

In terms of history we were, as noted above, below median and very much below last year,

In terms of the possible annual fall, assuming a median fall in December the BoM site was  up (? down might be better) to 656 mm.  This would be either the lowest or second lowest fall recorded since 1975.

Temperature

The best overall measure of temperature is the anomaly calculated as the difference between the mean monthly temperature and the long term average.  BoM data was used entirely for these calculations.  In November that ended the month at -0.1^oC.  The chart shows that the first two days were were hot, but the remainder of the month was quite mild.

The commonest situation (12 of 30 days) was for both minimum and maximum to be below average.  The other three cases (both min and max > average, one above the other below) were even at 6 days each. 

My second overall measure is a presentation of the daily extremes

The highest maximum was 38.8^oC - below the BoM reading which got to 40.7^oC on the 21^st.

Maximum Temperature

The mean maximum temperature was well above the long term average and last year.

Minimum temperature

In contrast to the maximum this was below both the long term value and last year.

Humidity

Both readings for humidity were well below last years's wet November, the  value for 1500 hrs noticeably so

Wind

The month seemed quite windy which is supported by the data.  The longest wind run was 444 km which is the third longest this year, and the strongest gust  64.4 kph (also 3rd highest this yearon the 21st (as the change came through after the hot day).

There is little to compare with but the overall change from previous months looks similar to a long term average.

In terms of wind direction we moved to a Summer pattern with more winds from close to South rather the NW to N.  I shall look at this more closely in the near future.

Town and Beach

When I visited the centre of the Town? Village? a whole bunch of folk were pointing their phones into a gum tree opposite the IGA.  Sure enough there was a not-bear.  Frances and I passed through about 3 pm and it was still there.

 Hyperactive as always!

If some one had set up a charity stall and charged $5 a photo local NGOs would have been miles in front!

On to Bastion Point where the rocks at the bottom of the steps were surprisingly well exposed.

 Another not-bear.  In this case  Bear Seaweed Crab (Notomithrax ursus).  This was a very small specimen: the larger one was negatively phototropic (ie hid as soon as I produces my camera).

We found a few Tritons  ...

...  and Shield Limpets.

Perhaps the ones found previously on the far side of the Great Wall have moved (or been moved by the sea) to this side?

A nice Brittle Star.

Part of a flock of about 45 Red-necked Stints.

This reminded me of the final part of the battle in Zulu.  Less Australian Pied Oystercatchers than there were warriors at Rorkes Drift.

A Grey Plover - after some elp from the FB group..

Fotos of Phish at Bastion Point

As the tide was very low yesterday (28 November) at a sensible time (1700 hrs) we went to explore the rock pools at Bastion Point.  From other commitments we ended up getting there a tad early but could still make an assessment of what was around.

The hordes of large shellfish (eg abalone, elephant snails and tritons) which we have found in the past were absent from the rocky areas. I don't know why this was so, but recall that a similar situation was evident at Cape Conran on Monday. Perhaps it's a seasonal effect?

However there were lots of small fish in the pools to make things interesting. I have only managed to identify one species so far but hopefully iNaturalist.org will help with a couple of others.

I was disappointed that I couldn't get a photo of the first one we saw. A tiny fish - less than 2cm long and slim - it didn't look like much until it turned in the sun and flashed into brilliant green iridescence. It was also very fast moving.

A school of somewhat larger fish (~5cm) were more obliging. Hopefully 'someone' will be able to ID it for me!

 On consulting the Port Philip Bay site  I suspect this is a Dragonet (Bovichtus angustifrons) although it seemed very small.

 A collection of Southern Fan Worms (Sabellastarte australiensis) showing a wide range of fan-ness.

 A crab - or as the Museum of Tanzania might label it, based on our visit to that institution, a crap.

 A Smooth Toadfish  (Tetractenos glaber). Two of these were swimming around in one pool.

Genoa Rules!

On yesterday's Wednesday Walk mention was made of the delights of an area somewhat away from Mallacoota.  So we took ourselves off there with a few key targets in mind:

1. Diuris punctata;
2. Dendrobium striolatum; 
3. Gippsland Water Dragon:
4. Emus.

Our first stop was a track off the Highway.  This took us through some well developed heath to, and then along, the Creek.  The first interesting flower seen was this, which superficially looked like a Tetratheca sp.  However it seemed to have  6 petals ...

 ... and no black eye.  Suggestions welcome.

 The first of several lilies:  Sowerbia juncea.

 There was a good collection of Callistemon citrinus in this area.  It is rather unusual to find it growing wild.

 After a short loop, finding the main Genoa Creek Track closed off by The Authorities for some undisclosed reason, we headed back to the power lines.  Here we were greeted by a bonus flock of 5 White-throated Needletails: my first for the season.

Our first plant find there was a clump of pale Gompholobium huegellii.

 Back to lilies: Thelionema caespitosa

 There was a very good crop of this species!

 A small, so far unidentified, bean.

Target species 1!  Diuris punctata the purple donkey orchid.  This is apparently unusual in East Gippsland but was quite common here - not exactly weed, but I guess well 100 flowers seen in quite a small area.

This little enclosure was labelled as a Royal Botanic Gardens collection site for seed of a large Prasophyllum, which did not have a flower stalk evident.

 A very large (about 7cm long) and colourful beetle.  It seemed to be feeding on Fabaceae vegetation.  I tried to get a photo of the front end but it didn't oblige.  iNaturalist.org has obliged with Stigmodera macularia.

 A relatively small (about 25cm high) Prasophyllum.  I have sought advice on the species, but for the time being will take a punt on P. parviflorum.  Expert advice has now been provided: P. appendiculatum which is rated as rare in Victoria (but known from Genoa).

 Another lily which has resolved to Tricoryne elatior.

 This next one is a puzzle.  It was common over the site and unusual with the leaves open below the flowers and then tightly closed above them.  The nearest I could get was a heath Woollsia pungens but that seems to have a Southern limit at Pigeon House Mountain, approximately 250 kn North.  However exploring the Genus Epacris on Flora of Victoria has come up with E. lanuginosa as a pretty good match.  (Interestingly, the vernacular name offered was "Woolly Heath" - very close to Woollsia.) Other suggestions welcome.

 Another lily Thysanotus tuberosus.

 This is a true bug, suggested by iNaturalist.org as subfamily Coreinae.

 We then moved to the a rocky area.  Going down to the rocks there was a lot of this species.

 The above is the calyxes.  Here is what the flower looks like - which hasn't helped us ID it!  Help!

Frances remembered seeing this in the ACT so a reference to Don and Betty Woods' book soon provided the necessary help.  Calytrix tetragona (Common Fringe Myrtle).

Pretty much as soon as we looked around we could see clumps of Denrobium striolatum up on the rocks.  Target species 2!

 I climbed up to get a photo of the flower (the tiny pale object mid-left of the clump of foliage) but the light was horrible so that went nowhere.  Then I found other flowers lower down in better light.

 

That was pretty much the flowers here.  The granite (IMHO - it could be basalt)  was spectacular!

 There was a small flow of water: hint to self, go back when it has rained.

 Many ferns amongst the rocks.

 Target species 3!  Gippsland Water Dragon Intellagama lesueurii.

 There were also basic skinks.  Again suggestions to get tis to genus/species welcome.

Target species 4!  As hoped a flock of emus (we got up to 14) were patrolling the pastures nearby.

 As we left to head home we noticed a flock of about 19 Straw-necked Ibis hanging around on the flats beside the Mallacoota Rd.  An unusual species in the area so yet another bonus.

All up an excellent outing, to an area added to our list of must revisit.