February 2025 Weather report

 Basically a fluctuating month, somewhat consistent with the descriptions of Melbourne weather "Four seasons in a single day" and "Don't like our weather?  Wait 5 minutes and it will change."  We ended with above median rain and a positive temperature anomaly.  The results for humidity and lightning strikes had me wondering if the word 'tropical' might be dropped in somewhere!

Rain

At my weather station (WS) we totalled 102.2mm of rain in the month.  This is 215% of median fall for the month and in conjunction with slightly above median fall for January means we have 154% of the median fall Year to date.

 

Possibly the most interesting aspect of the rainfall was the differing falls recorded at 3 local stations as shown in the chart.  (Neither of the 2 local Wunderground sites of which I am aware have complete data for February.)

The pattern is slightly clouded by the 0900 reset for BoM data but clearly storm cells dumped a lot more rain (184.8 mm) at the Airport than my WS, which in turn collected a lot more than Gabo Island (totalled 60.2).

One summary of the situation at my WS is to note that it recorded (see above) well over median and very much above February 2024.

Looking at my pro-rata estimate of total estimated annual fall for the whole year shows this year's estimate to be above the last two years and showing a more stable pattern thus far.

Temperatures

The overall temperature anomaly for the month was +1.15C: at no point in the month was the anomaly negative, reflecting the very warm start to February.

A monthly series of values of the anomaly shows the moving average with a slight uptick but the trendline still suggesting a downwards push.

The daily extremes show the very high values for both measures early in the month with the minima staying high until mid month.  The third week was cool or below for both measures.

There was one period - 2nd to 4th - in which both values were at least significantly above average for 3 consecutive days.  The 4th had both measures very significantly above average.  Indeed all values except 1 (the maximum on the 5th) for 2nd to 7th were above average so a prolonged hot spell.

There were no periods of 3 consecutive days with both significantly below average, although in the period 15th to 20th all values were below average with 3 days in which both were significantly below average.  I'd rate that as a cool spell.

Minimum temperatures

The average minimum for the month was 17.07C approximately 0.7C higher than the average for the 6 Februarys we have been here.  It is the highest of the 6 values.

Overall there were 11 days significantly above average minimum and 7 days significantly below average minimum.

Maximum temperatures

The average maximum for the month was 25.88C approximately 1.4C higher than the average for the 6 Februarys we have been here.  It is almost the highest of the 6 values, being 0.04C below the value for last year.

Overall there were 8 days significantly above average minimum and 4 days significantly below average minimum.

Humidity

Overall the month was at least 'muggy' with the average relative humidity for both standard times well above last February and the 7 year average.  This was due to:

• some very high readings in the first 1/3rd of the month; and 
• the humidity only dipping below 50% on one day.

Looking at the 7 years for which I have WS data (BoM does not oblige with historic humidity data at no cost 😪) we would normally have 2 or 3 days with a minimum rH below 50%.  This year there was only 1.

Wind

A very windy month at Angophora Drive.  

The daily wind runs were quite impressive at times.  

The 2 day total for 2nd and 4rd were the 5th highest 2 day total I have recorded (the wind down at lunchtime on the 4th meaning the 3 day total run was merely 'long' not record setting). The run of 461km on the 13th was the 6 longest (of 2205) I have recorded, and the longest February run.  The runs on the 2nd and 3rd came in as 3rd and 4th longest February runs and the 10th and 13th for all months.

Son et Lumiere ...

.. or Donner und Blitzen, for fans of reindeer!

Thanks to a friend on the Tempest Network we have information about lightning strikes and solar radiation.  The observations start in September 2022. 

The lightning strike information covers a 40km radius from the station site close to the wharf.  The number of strikes recorded for February 2025 was an astonishing 6941 compared to the highest number prior to 2025 of 1212 strikes in December 2023.  I am attempting to verify the February result: an initial foray on the Tempest system shows that:

• a site at Burragate (between Eden and Bombala) recorded 16,556 strikes in the month and 
• a site in Bairnsdale recorded 6,941

 giving some confidence in the report for Mallacoota.  Looking at the Help pages for the Tempest system gives the following further boost to my confidence:

"Fortunately, the data reported by the individual sensor in your Tempest is supported by additional data and a sophisticated back-end process that significantly improves the reporting of lightning. This is accomplished by comparing data from your Tempest with other nearby Tempests along with several trusted, third-party lightning data sources. The result is the best lightning strike data available."

As long as Elon Musk isn't involved in the system I think I am happy with, but still surprised by the data as provided.

Solar radiation shows a distinct seasonal pattern (surely not a surprise!) and the latest results conform with the normal situation.

January 2025 Weather report

 The numbers suggest a temperate moist month.

Rain

Mallacoota recorded 89.2 mm of rain during the month, 176% of the median and 137% of mean fall.  his came in 4 events spread through the middle of the month.  On a trip to Merimbula we noticed that the grazing country had greened up quite well. 

It is too early to really make any sense of the pro-rata estimate of rain for the year but the pattern is fairly typical of the situation in January.

Temperatures

A significantly cold start to the month was followed by a hot period (not quite a heat wave) and then a gradual cooling with a very mild end to the month.  This is illustrated well by the development of the anomaly - which ended at -0.23C.

The value of the anomaly continues to suggest a downwards movement, especially the moving average, which excludes seasonal variation.

Both components of the average (minimum and maximum) show great variation relative to the long term daily average at my WS, but with reasonably consistently low values for the last 1/3rd of the month.

Minimum temperatures.

The average daily minimum was 16.2C in the lower part of recent values.  The lowest value recorded, 10.4C on 3/1, was very significantly below average although there have been 45 lower January minima (including BoM records) since 1994, and 4 other days were significantly below.  3 days were significantly above the long term January average minimum.

Maximum temperatures 

The average daily maximum was 25.38C, in the higher part of recent values.  The highest value recorded, 36.8C on 5/1, was very significantly above  average with only 25 January maxima (including BoM records) since 1994.  There are 11 January maxima - including those adjusted to exclude the cooling effect of the sea breeze at the airport site - above 40C.  In 2025 6 other days were significantly above the long term average maximum.  Only 1 day - 30/1 - was significantly below the long term January average minimum.

No period reached 3 consecutive days with significantly high maxima and minima (forming a heat wave) but from 4- 6 January only 1 of the 6 reading was not significantly high so I rate this as a "hot spell"

Humidity

The daily humidity chart is reasonably normal apart from some complexity at the end of the 4 - 6 January hot spell.

The mean morning % is a little above the 6 year average while that for the afternoon reading is a little below the average.

Wind

The average daily wind run (122 km) was below the average for the previous 5 years (128km) although a few days were somewhat draughty.

The run of 305 km on 4/1 was the 6th (of 155) January runs I have recorded while the 270km on 12/1 was the 10th longest
 

A bit North of coota

We needed to get a new windscreen fitted to El Camion Real (my Pajero - which has another translation in Spanish) so went to Pambula.  Job done very effectively and at a good price.  We got dropped into the town centre while the car was being worked on and ended up at the small lagoon opposite the wetlands.  A Nankeen Night Heron  was spotted.

Then a second, a little less cryptic was picked out.

On the way home (after retail therapy in Merimbula) we swung by Wonboyn to check on reports of a Bush Stone Curlew there.  Very easily found in the main street.

Some Koala pix

On the afternoon of Christmas Eve a neighbour reported a Koala in the big Angophoras behind our houses.  It had climbed up the tree and gone to sleep in a convenient fork (about 10m up). 

We wondered if it was visible from our deck, but a clump of foliage was in the way.   However a little later another message reported the chubby chappie was feeding in a eucalypt out the front.  Not only feeding but sitting right on top of the tree.

Definitely feeding, and the tree concerned is a popular garden planting.  Comments about Koalas only eating a few species of peppermint are incorrect: they seem to eat a wide range of members of the family Myrtaceae.

On our morning walk on Christmas Day we were very pleased to see another Koala - in fact 2 - crossing Lakeside Drive.

Having recovered her breath, Mum decided a Melaleuca armillaris needed to be climbed.

She then changed her mind about which tree needed to be ascended.  Junior seemed a little uncertain about her ability to finish this move.

However when we returned they were both up in the canopy and - judging by the munching noises - Melaleuca (also in the family Myrtaceae) is in the diet.

November 2024 Weather Report

 Because Facebook wouldn't allow me to post a link to my last blogpost in this series (but did allow the Google Doc version to appear) I have done this as a Google Doc.  I assume the actual decision was made by AI rather than a cubicle-wasting drone of a FB staffer, but do speculate about the chaos that will result when FB (or the Musk OX) are in charge of who is aged > 16 yrs!

October 2024 Weather Report

 The summary is fairly straightforward: moderate temperatures and continuing dry.

Rain

What is this thing called rain?  The total miserable fall for October was 19.2mm, the third lowest for the period for which I have records (starting in 1977).  For the last three months the % of median fall has been 36, 89 and now 31.  I will not bother with daily rainfall, other than to note the highest fall (over half the monthly total!) was 10mm on the 5th,  To illustrate  the bleedin' obvious, the month was  well below last year and the median.

My prorata estimate of the annual fall has been in more less constant decline since 30 July with the outcome now below 1000mm for the first time since 5 June.

Temperatures

 The temperature anomaly ended the month at -0.08C, so a little cool.  the development of the anomaly though the month shows a cool start which rapidly warmed up and then wobbled about close to zero for the rest of the month.

A time series of anomaly values shows very variable raw data readings but the 12 month moving averages (removing seasonal variation) and the trend line thereof show a drop from peak values.  I'd still keep the sunscreen handy.

A plot of daily extreme values and the average of them since 2019 shows a lot of variation.  There was no period of consistently above or below averages.

There were no periods of consecutive days with maximum and minimum both significantly above or below the average mean temperature for the month.  The average daily temperature range of 9.5C was fairly close to the average range of  10.2C.

Minimum temperature

The lowest temperature was 4.6C on the 9th.  The average minimum of 10.36 was a little above the long term series including BoM data for years before 2019 but below the average of the 6 years at Angophora Drive and very similar to October 2023.

There were 8 days more than 1 SD below the mean minimum for October of which 2 were more than 2 SD below the mean. Only 3 minima were significantly above the mean minimum.

Maximum Temperatures

The highest maximum recorded in the month was 26.2 on the 22nd.  The average maximum (20.33C) was a little above the average for Angophora Drive (but exactly on the longer term average).

There was only 1 day more than 1 SD below the mean maximum for October. 3 maxima were significantly above the mean maximum.

Humidity

For the first 16 days of the month the rH readings for the 2 standard times were very close, with the afternoon reading lower than expected.  For the second half of the month the pattern was closer to expectations.

Overall the average rH for 0900 hrs ended up below the average for the previous 5 years while that for 1500 hours was below, but within 1 percentage point of, the average. 

Wind

October is traditionally a windy month. However the average run for this month was the shortest by several kilometres of the 6 Octobers for which I have records.  This is due to a number of quite calm days (run <50km) and there not being any days with long runs (>300km).  The longest daily run was only 251km.  

Tempest data

A friend with a weather station near the wharf has given me access to his information published through the Tempest system.  The data I extract therefrom are lightning strikes (within 40km) and solar radiation.

Lightning strikes

Only 12 strikes recorded in October.

Solar radiation

The system records maximum radiation during the day and average radiation.  I average them to get an index for illustrative purposes. 

Clearly there is a seasonal pattern evident so I have calculated a 12 term moving average to smooth that effect.  The smoothing is very effective, showing an almost constant value. (Unlike the feed-in tariff of course which drops constantly.)

An interesting paddle

There have been a lot of waders on the sandbars in front of Captain Stevenson's Point in recent days.  As the weather seemed reasonable (not cold, and light wind although forecast to increase in an hour or so) I decided to fire up the kayak and go visit the area to see what I could photograph.

The first interesting element arose as I prepared to launch the kayak at the wharf.  After getting the kayak off the trailer, getting all the bits and pieces out of the Pajero and wheeling them to my launch spot, I realised that:

1.  the the two components of the paddles were different; and
2. I had picked up two with the female fitting.

So wheel everything back to the car, reload everything and drive home to pick up the needed male half of the paddle.  I was not happy.  However I got back and launched.  Here is my route: yellow arrows are in kayak, red are walking.

I will get to the birds in a while but will write a little about progress.  There is much more water than shown in the image and I was finding a good channel all the way to the Point but after turning across towards the island I could see that I was running out of liquid so the pedals were removed and paddling happened - perhaps for 100m: I was glad I had the correct paddles!  I dragged the kayak well out of the water (being uncertain if the tide was rising or falling).

When I got to point X on the walk I could feel the breeze getting stronger so decided that it was time to pull the plug.  Of course I was a little delayed by the Beach Stone-Curlew but launched OK (the tide was going out or the rising westerly was pushing water out).  Once I got going I found that the wind was pushing me around somewhat and the water was shallower than on the way out.  Pedals out and paddle:

• discovering how useful the rudder was in counteracting the wind's desire to send me to Gabo, and
•  praising various deities that I had the correct paddles rather than trying to remember how to do a J-stroke with half the set!  

Once back to the deep channel by the campground I was also sheltered from the wind and pedalled back happily.  

Here are some bird photos.

Pelicans and about 400 Crested Terns.

Bar-tailed Godwit; Red Knot; Red-necked Stint and Red-capped Plover

Red-necked Stints

This image gives an idea of the density of the birds as the whole shoreline was covered like this.  On thinking about it. possibly 300m long, 10m wide, at least 1 wader per 5 square metres.

As I was approaching the kayak I spotted a Red-capped Plover doing a distraction display and then in the background, this!  A/the Beach Stone-Curlew is back.  I shall try to do a review of the history of the species in Mallacoota but they are not common.